Three walk-throughs. All of them labelled scenarios.
Forgiron has no customer results yet, so this page does not pretend to. Each scenario describes a hypothetical cell, what the agent would do at each autonomy level, and the metric table the pilot would fill in. When a design partner signs, the first real case study replaces the first scenario.
Illustrative scenario: Cell F-2 · 2,500 t closed-die press · 42CrMo4 connecting rod, one lot, one approval gate
Holding forging temperature and fill on a driveline cell
A hypothetical closed-die cell forging 42CrMo4 connecting rods: induction heater, 2,500 t press, two-blow schedule, forging window 1,180 to 1,230 °C. Today the operator runs the billet hot and the second blow hard to guarantee fill.
What the agent would do
- Shadow mode. Heatrix reads pyrometry, thermal imaging and coil telemetry and estimates surface temperature, core-to-surface spread and soak; Forgeon reads force and ram curves and scores fill and lap risk per piece.
- Assist mode. Heatrix proposes stage power and soak moves and Forgeon proposes a stroke schedule ranked on the twin; the forging engineer approves each one.
- Bounded autonomy. heating and soak adjustments execute inside per-alloy windows; every press-schedule change stays with the engineer.
| Metric | How | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Energy per heat | kWh per piece, before and during | to be measured |
| Thermal-defect scrap | pieces per lot with overheat, decarburization or cold shut | to be measured |
| Fill and lap scrap | pieces per lot, with die cavity and stroke | to be measured |
| Core-to-surface spread | °C at the end of soak | to be measured |
No result is claimed. The metric table is what the pilot would record.
Pulling the die before it scraps a part
A hypothetical closed-die cell with a two-cavity die, fixed spray recipe and reactive die changes. Today a die is pulled after the first underfill or heat-check defect appears on the part.
What the agent would do
- Shadow mode. Diesmith models die surface temperature, heat-check growth and lubricant coverage per cavity from thermal and vision between strokes.
- Assist mode. Diesmith proposes spray dose, cooling and a die-change window per cavity; the die engineer approves.
- Bounded autonomy. spray and cooling move inside declared limits between strokes; die changes stay with the human and are scheduled, not reacted to.
| Metric | How | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Forgings per die | strokes per cavity to refurbishment, before and during | to be measured |
| Unplanned die changes | per month and minutes lost | to be measured |
| Die-related scrap | underfill and heat-check marks per lot | to be measured |
| Lubricant use | per piece | to be measured |
No result is claimed. The metric table is what the pilot would record.
Catching the lap and the internal crack before the part ships
A hypothetical aerospace disc line with high-speed and thermal cameras at the press, an ultrasonic station and MPI. Today inspection is spot and manual, and an escape is a requalification event.
What the agent would do
- Shadow mode. Flawnex fuses all five modalities into one soundness score per part, localises every finding to lot, die cavity and stroke, and compares against the inspector's calls.
- Assist mode. Flawnex flags laps, folds and internal indications, routes suspect parts to ultrasonic or MPI and drafts a cited disposition; the quality engineer decides.
- Bounded autonomy. inspection routing and lot holds execute automatically; upstream corrections go through the control agents' own limits and approvals.
| Metric | How | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Inspection escapes | per lot, before and during | to be measured |
| Detection accuracy | against inspector and ultrasonic baseline | to be measured |
| Scrap and downgrade | pieces per lot | to be measured |
| Genealogy completeness | % of parts with a full record | to be measured |
No result is claimed. The metric table is what the pilot would record.
The reference scenario, step by step
Every Forgiron run is an ordered, inspectable sequence. This is run_7c2e41 on Cell F-2 · 2,500 t closed-die press · 42CrMo4 connecting rod. Scenario completes in 10 steps with one approval gate. Surface temperature held at 1,205 °C with a 14 °C core-to-surface spread, fill predicted and confirmed complete, one lap precursor at the flash land cleared by a blow-energy trim, lot L-80412 released with full genealogy.
-
01
ingest.order
SUCCEEDED
0.6 s
Plant Orchestrator · Pulled the part spec for the 42CrMo4 connecting rod from MES: forging window 1,180 to 1,230 °C, two-blow closed-die schedule, flash land 2.4 mm, temper to 28 to 32 HRC, 1,200 pieces. Locked the qualified process envelope.
-
02
twin.simulate
SUCCEEDED
52 s
Forge Twin · Simulated 24 candidate heat-and-stroke recipes on the as-forged twin for soak time, blow energy and spray timing, ranked on predicted fill, lap risk at the flash land, die load and kWh per piece.
-
03
heat.soak
SUCCEEDED
2 m 10 s
Heat-and-Billet · Induction power on IH-2 stepped down 4% in the final soak stage as the pyrometer read 1,205 °C at the surface. Core-to-surface spread estimated at 14 °C against a 20 °C limit, no overheat, scale growth inside the window.
-
04
die.spray
SUCCEEDED
48 s
Die-and-Lube · Lower-die spray dose raised 6% and cooling extended 0.3 s as die surface temperature climbed through 240 °C. Heat-check growth on cavity 2 flagged at 0.31 of the die-change threshold.
-
05
approve.human
APPROVAL
46 s
Plant Orchestrator · Recipe #9 moves second-blow energy 3% below the standing schedule. Press-schedule changes stay supervised on this part family, so the step was held for the shift forging engineer and approved at 05:47:31.
-
06
forge.stroke
SUCCEEDED
1 m 36 s
Forge-and-Press · Two-blow schedule executed with the approved energy. High-speed vision and force curves confirmed complete fill on the first ten pieces; predicted lap risk at the flash land fell from 0.27 to 0.08.
-
07
inspect.fuse
SUCCEEDED
continuous
Defect-and-Inspect · Eight cameras, two thermal cameras and the ultrasonic station fused at the edge. One lap precursor at the flash land on piece 212 flagged and cleared by a 1.5% blow-energy trim inside the approved envelope; the piece was routed to MPI and passed.
-
08
handle.transfer
SUCCEEDED
continuous
Robot-and-Handling · Press-to-trim transfer planned and executed by the handling robot at 11 s per piece, temperature loss in transfer 38 °C against a 60 °C limit, interlock zones clear throughout.
-
09
heat.treat
SUCCEEDED
continuous
Trim-and-Heat · Temper furnace HT-1 zone 2 trimmed 5 °C against the predicted hardness from the recorded heat and stroke history. First hardness checks read 30 HRC, inside 28 to 32.
-
10
lot.release
SUCCEEDED
1 m 20 s
Quality-and-Conformance · Lot L-80412 released: genealogy written (billet lot, heat curve, stroke record, die cycles, inspection map, approvals, temper record) and dispositioned against IATF 16949 criteria with cited evidence for the quality engineer's sign-off.
The agent shows its work
Every tool invocation, argument and result is written to an append-only, human-readable log, and every reasoning step is expandable. Nothing about a run is hidden from the forge.
- 05:40:02mes.read_order({ cell: "F-2", part: "CR-42CrMo4-118", qty: 1200 })
- 05:40:02ok envelope locked · 1,180 to 1,230 °C · 2 blows · 28 to 32 HRC
- 05:40:03twin.simulate({ candidates: 24, horizon: "1 lot" })
- 05:40:55ok best recipe #9 · fill 1.00 · lap risk 0.08 · 1.9 kWh/pc
- 05:40:56policy.evaluate({ recipe: 9, autonomy: "L2+" })
- 05:40:56ok 7 writes permitted · press_schedule requires human approval
- 05:40:57induction.set_power({ tag: "IH2.STAGE3_KW", delta: "-4%" })
- 05:43:07ok surface 1,205 °C · core-to-surface spread 14 °C · no overheat
- 05:43:08spray.set_dose({ die: "F2.LOWER", dose: "+6%", cool: "+0.3 s" })
- 05:43:56ok die surface 240 °C · heat-check index 0.31
- 05:43:57approval.request({ action: "press_schedule", blow2: "-3%" })
- 05:47:31ok approved by shift forging engineer · logged
- 05:47:32press.set_schedule({ press: "F-2", recipe: 9 })
- 05:49:08ok fill complete on 10 pieces · lap risk 0.27 → 0.08
- 05:49:09sensors.fuse({ cams: 8, thermal: 2, ut: true })
- 06:21:40precursor: lap risk 0.52 · flash land · piece 212
- 06:21:41press.set_schedule({ press: "F-2", blow2: "-1.5%", within: "approved envelope" })
- 06:21:58ok lap risk 0.52 → 0.07 · piece 212 routed to MPI · passed
- 06:22:00isaac.plan_path({ task: "press_to_trim", cell: "F-2" })
- 06:22:11ok 11 s per piece · transfer loss 38 °C · zones clear
- 06:22:12furnace.set_zone({ furnace: "HT-1", zone: 2, delta: "-5 °C" })
- 06:58:40ok first hardness 30 HRC · inside 28 to 32
- 06:58:41mes.log_forging({ lot: "L-80412", genealogy: "full" })
- 07:00:01ok scenario complete · 10 steps · 0 laps escaped · released
Reasoning trace
Plan, thought, action, observation, exactly as the orchestrator would record it.
GoalRun the 42CrMo4 connecting-rod lot on cell F-2 inside the qual…
Run the 42CrMo4 connecting-rod lot on cell F-2 inside the qualified window, hold full fill with zero laps at the flash land, and land hardness between 28 and 32 HRC.
PlanSimulate heat-and-stroke recipes on the twin first. Lead with …
Simulate heat-and-stroke recipes on the twin first. Lead with heating so the billet state is right before the stroke, then set spray against die temperature, then execute the approved press schedule. Fuse inspection continuously. Hold any press-schedule change for a human.
ThoughtThe standing schedule runs the second blow hot enough to guara…
The standing schedule runs the second blow hot enough to guarantee fill on a cold billet. With the induction soak held at 1,205 °C the twin predicts the same fill at 3% less energy and lower flash-land lap risk, because the metal arrives more uniform.
Actiontwin.simulate(candidates=24) returns recipe #9: stage-3 induct…
twin.simulate(candidates=24) returns recipe #9: stage-3 induction power down 4%, lower-die spray up 6%, second-blow energy down 3%.
ObservationRecipe #9 predicts fill 1.00, lap risk 0.08 and 1.9 kWh per pi…
Recipe #9 predicts fill 1.00, lap risk 0.08 and 1.9 kWh per piece. Two candidates scored lower on energy but pushed predicted die load past the cavity-2 limit and were discarded.
ActionExecute recipe #9: seven bounded writes permitted on heating, …
Execute recipe #9: seven bounded writes permitted on heating, spray, handling and heat-treat; the press-schedule write routed to the shift forging engineer.
ObservationLap precursor at the flash land on piece 212 at 06:21:40. A 1.…
Lap precursor at the flash land on piece 212 at 06:21:40. A 1.5% blow-energy trim inside the approved envelope cleared it in 17 s; the piece was routed to MPI and passed.
OutcomeScenario complete. Fill confirmed, no laps escaped, hardness 3…
Scenario complete. Fill confirmed, no laps escaped, hardness 30 HRC. Lot L-80412 released with full genealogy.
Four levels, set per agent and per tag
A forge does not go from manual to unattended in one step. Forgiron makes the level explicit, auditable and reversible at any time. The first release runs shadow mode, then assist mode, then bounded autonomy on low-risk actions. Press control stays supervised until the part family is qualified.
| Level | What the agent does | What the human does | Where it sits in a pilot |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1 · Shadow | Reads thermal, vision, ultrasonic, MPI, press, die, robot and MES signals; predicts and recommends; writes nothing | Runs the cell as today; compares predictions to inspection and engineer outcomes | Shadow mode, baseline 30 to 60 days |
| L2 · Assist | Proposes heating, press, die-lube, routing and handling actions with evidence, confidence, envelope and rollback path | Approves each action in the review console | Assist mode, the remainder of a 90 to 180 day pilot |
| L3 · Bounded | Executes pre-approved low-risk actions: inspection routing, lube timing, heating and soak adjustments, robot path variants, inside PLC and safety limits | Approves press-schedule changes, die changes and lot release | Graduated autonomy, after audited accuracy and ROI |
| L4 · Scaled | Supervised press-schedule adaptation for qualified part families, across cells and sites | Sets the envelope; reviews the shift record and the evaluation results | Planned; after golden-dataset evaluation, simulation validation and quality sign-off |
Straight answers
The questions plant directors, forging engineers and quality engineers ask in the first meeting.
Yes, but only within an explicit tag allow-list with per-tag rate and magnitude limits, inside the qualified process envelope, and only at the autonomy level your plant has set. Design partners start in shadow mode, where Forgiron writes nothing. Press-schedule changes stay supervised by a named forging engineer until the part family is qualified.
Control returns to the furnace, press or die controller's last known-good state. Forgiron is a supervisory layer on top of the PLCs and interlocks you already run, never a replacement for them, so an outage degrades the cell to its current way of running, not to a stop.
Advisory recommendations start from the physics-based twin and the part spec in the first weeks. Defect, die-wear and heating prediction improve as cell history and labelled outcomes accumulate per part family. The first training sets are sized at 2 million labelled frames and signals, 20,000 heat and press cycles and 10,000 die-life events per design-partner cohort, all design targets.
Only if you choose cloud training. Die designs, part drawings, recipes, process models and quality records are isolated per tenant and never used to train another customer's models. A fully on-prem deployment at the plant edge is available for sensitive producers, and federated learning across sites is planned and waits on data-rights agreements.
You are, the same as with any control strategy, which is why every write is policy-checked, bounded, logged and reversible, and why anything above your risk threshold waits for a named approver. The audit log records the request, the evidence, the envelope applied and the human decision.
A paid pilot of 90 to 180 days on one cell, scoped to a single wedge with a success metric written into the order form: defect-detection accuracy, scrap reduction, die-change reduction, energy reduction or first-pass-quality improvement. The first 30 to 60 days baseline scrap, die life, energy, inspection escapes and takt in shadow mode.
Make the first scenario real
Start with one heating, press, die or inspection cell and one measurable baseline. A paid pilot on billet heating and press fill, die life or ultrasonic and MPI defect detection shows the number before you commit further.